Maharashtra Exit Polls Give Heft To Independents; Pawar Dons Mediator’s Hat For MVA – News18

Last Updated:November 21, 2024, 12:14 IST

The alliances are trying to convince the candidates before counting day on November 23, seeking their support if the coalition gets good numbers but falls just short of majority

Sources told CNN-News18 that after the exit polls, both alliances have started contacting Independents and candidates of smaller parties who may win elections. (PTI)

Rebels and Independents are likely to play the kingmaker’s role in the formation of the Maharashtra government after exit polls on Wednesday predicted a neck-and-neck contest between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the state.

Sources told CNN-News18 that after the exit polls, both alliances have started contacting Independents and candidates of smaller parties who may win elections. The alliances are trying to convince the candidates before counting day on November 23, seeking their support if the coalition gets good numbers but falls just short of majority.

On Wednesday, ABP-Matrize predicted 150-170 seats for Mahayuti and 110-130 for the Maha Vikas Aghadi. P-MarQ has given 137-157 seats to the Mahayuti and 126-146 to the MVA. Chanakya has predicted 152-160 seats for Mahayuti and 130-138 for the MVA. Poll Diary has indicated that Mahayuti may net 137-157 seats and MVA 126-146. People’s Pulse has predicted 182 seats for the Mahayuti and 97 for the MVA. Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra foresees a neck-and-neck fight with 128-142 seats for the Mahayuti and 125-140 for the MVA. Bhaskar Reporters’ Poll is the outlier, predicting 135-150 seats for the MVA and 125-140 for the Mahayuti.

Sources said the exit polls had also sparked discussions within the MVA, with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, NCP veteran Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, and Rahul Gandhi discussing polling patterns. The alliance has decided to wait and watch on exit polls as they believe that the figures “always go wrong”. Sources also said if the need arises, Pawar Sr — who is known for his master manoeuvres — will be the points person to negotiate with rebels and Independents.

According to data, at least a third of the 288 constituencies in Maharashtra have seen a rebellion, with at least 50 key rebels in the fray who can hurt the chances of the official candidates from both the ruling and opposition alliances.

Over the years, India’s financial capital has seen an increase in the number of Independents in the fray. This year, 2,087 of the total 4,136 candidates — almost 50 per cent — are fighting the assembly election without the backing of a political party.

The state’s first assembly elections in 1962 saw 15 Independents secure victories in the 264-member assembly. As the years progressed, the number of Independents rose, signalling their importance in government formation.

Apart from Independents, several smaller parties are in the fray — Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party; Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi; Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena; Maharashtra Swarajya Party founded by Yuvraj Sambhaji Raje Chhatrapati — the descendent of Maratha warrior Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj; Rashtriya Samaj Paksha founded by Dhangar leader Mahadev Jankar; Prahar Janshakti Party; People’s Party Of India (Democratic); Republican Party of India (A); Republican Sena; and Swabhimani Paksha.

Political experts believe that both Independents and smaller parties will play a crucial role in deciding who holds Maharashtra’s reins for the next five years.

Mandar Phanse, Consulting Editor of News18 Lokmat, said: “Though the numbers are showing a neck-and-neck competition, but looking at the voting percentage, I feel either of the alliances will get majority. Having said this, I believe this time, Independent and smaller parties may play a crucial role as their support will make sure that the new government is firm and has strong numbers.”

Editor of Lokmat newspaper and senior political journalist Atul Kulkarni said: “I don’t believe in the exit poll numbers after looking at the voting percentage which has broken the record of 1995. It shows that people have decided to give mandate to one particular party. Hence, help of smaller parties may not be required. Also, if the situation arises, then Congress rebels or BJP rebels may be contacted by their former parties.”

For independents, this scenario offers a unique opportunity to maximise their political leverage. As their “market value” rises, they are in a position to negotiate lucrative offers, from ministerial portfolios to significant developmental funds for their constituencies.

With political parties already lobbying for their favour, the days following the results are expected to be marked by intense backroom negotiations and strategic alliances. This election underscores the fragmented nature of Maharashtra’s political landscape, where independents are no longer mere outliers but key players in shaping the state’s governance. As the drama unfolds, all eyes remain on these pivotal candidates and the deals that will define Maharashtra’s political future.