Russia Closes In On Key Ukrainian City Amid Surge In Peace Diplomacy

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow, a Russian diplomat said, as rebels took control of the capital, Damascus, bringing to an end the brutal, half-century rule of the Assad family.

Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador in Vienna, said in a social media post late on December 8 that “Assad and his family are in Moscow” after going through what he characterized as a “difficult situation.”

According to Russian media reports, Assad and his family have been granted asylum by Moscow. The Biden administration could not confirm the information but said it had no reason to doubt it.

Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad “decided to resign” after “negotiations” with a “number of participants in the armed conflict” and left office “giving instructions for a peaceful transfer of power.”

“Russia did not participate in these negotiations,” the ministry added.

Russia has been a longstanding ally of Syria, providing significant military and political support to Assad’s regime, especially during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.

The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement came as the rebels said in a statement aired on state TV that Damascus is “now free of Assad,” whose family ruled the country with an iron fist since 1971.

Syrians across the country took to the streets to celebrate Assad’s ouster, pulling down statues and ransacking government buildings. Social media footage showed crowds of men entering the presidential place in Damascus, with reports of looting.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said in a video that the government is “ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people.”

“We believe that Syria is for all Syrians and that it is the country of all its sons and that this country can be a normal state that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world without entering into any regional alliances and blocs,” Jalali said.

He was later seen leaving his home on December 8, escorted by armed men, reportedly to meet the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Sunni rebel group that led the current offensive against the Assad regime.

HTS is a U.S.- and EU-designated terrorist organization. In recent years, the Islamist militant group severed ties with Al-Qaeda and sought to remake itself as a pragmatic alternative to the Syrian government. But concerns remain over its alleged rights abuses and ties to terrorist groups.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the HTS, has sought to reassure Shi’ite Alawites and other Syrian minorities, including Christians, that he will not discriminate against minorities.

U.S. Strikes Against IS

In Washington, President Joe Biden said the United States “will engage with all Syrian groups” as the country transitions to a post-Assad government.

He cautioned that some of the rebel groups that helped overthrow Assad “have their own grim record” of human rights abuses even though they have been “saying the right things” in recent days.

“As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words but their actions,” Biden said in a televised address from the White House on December 8.

He said the United States will be closely watching the activities of the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, which could seek to use the power vacuum to again establish rule in Syria.

Biden said the United States conducted precision strikes on IS positions in Syria earlier in the day.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement that the Assad regime’s refusal since 2011 to engage “in a credible political process and its reliance on the brutal support of Russia and Iran led inevitably to its own collapse.”

“After 14 years of conflict, the Syrian people finally have reason for hope,” he added.

A senior Biden administration official told reporters on background it was a “significant” strike on 75 IS targets in eastern Syria using B-52s and F-15s.

“These guys want to reconstitute…and we are going to make sure that if they think they can seize advantage in this situation, that they can’t,” the senior official said.

Setback For Russia

Experts have said the fall of the Assad regime represents a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin, which, along with Tehran, has supported the Syrian government through many years of civil war.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Russia and Iran did not appear to bolster the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), which was rapidly collapsing, by rushing in additional forces.

Biden said Russia has been weakened by the nearly three-year war in Ukraine while Iran’s proxies in the region have been crushed by Israel.

Russia has an estimated 7,500 troops and multiple military sites in Syria, including an air base at Hmeimim and strategic naval facilities at Tartus, which are also used to support the Kremlin’s actions in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the Russian RIA Novosti news agency, the leaders of the armed Syrian opposition “have guaranteed security to the Russian military bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria.” RFE/RL can not confirm those reports.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declined to comment on the fate of the Russian bases, saying he “wasn’t in the business of guessing.”

The senior Biden administration official expressed some doubt about Russia’s ability to maintain the bases.

“The Russians have now announced that they have taken Assad to Moscow. So we’ll see what the Syrians who have worked for decades to overthrow the yoke of the Assad regime think about that when it comes to the Russian facilities,” he said.

Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of Russia’s upper house of parliament, said on December 8 that Syrians will have to cope with a full-scale war alone, but he suggested Moscow was ready to support the Syrian people in certain circumstances.

The ISW said Moscow had not yet begun to evacuate the naval base, “but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.”

Ruslan Suleymanov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, told RFE/RL that Moscow would “cooperate with the rebels” if they take power in Damascus and that HTS too has “claimed previously that it was ready to negotiate” with the Kremlin.

“Putin wants to save his military presence in the region. In any case, to do that, he has to make concessions — both to jihadists and to [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan who supports [the rebels],” Suleymanov said.

The surprise offensive began on November 27 during which a coalition of rebel groups led by HTS captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest.

Since then, they moved on to take other major cities with Assad’s forces providing little resistance.

Besides HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkey has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country’s consent.

The United Nations said on December 6 that almost 300,000 people in Syria had already been displaced since late November by the fighting, and that up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee as the rebels advance and inflict losses on Assad, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies.

Assad has relied on Iran and Russia to remain in power since the conflict erupted in 2011.

Neighbors, World Powers React

The developments in Damascus prompted Syria’s neighbors to take urgent measures, with Lebanon announcing it was closing all its land border crossings with Syria except for one that links Beirut with Damascus.

Jordan closed a border crossing with Syria, too.

Israel said on December 8 it has deployed forces in a demilitarized buffer zone along its northern border with Syria and sent troops “other places necessary for its defense.”

The Israeli military said the deployment was meant to provide security for residents of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.

The United States said it will maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State (IS) in the region. The United States has about 900 soldiers in Syria.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro said Washington is “aware that the chaotic and dynamic circumstances on the ground in Syria could give [IS] space to find the ability to become active, to plan external operations.”

Speaking at a security conference in Bahrain on December 8, Shapiro said the United States is determined to work with its partners to “continue to degrade [IS] capabilities.”

“[We’re determined] to ensure [IS’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of IS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,” Shapiro added.

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen described the latest developments as a “watershed moment in Syria’s history” and urged all armed actors in the country to maintain law and order and preserve pubic institutions.

Speaking in Doha on December 8, Pedersen also said he has no information on Assad’s whereabouts.

Tom Fletcher, head of the UN humanitarian aid agency, warned about the plight of the millions of Syrians displaced by nearly 14 years of the country’s civil war. Now many more are in danger, Fletcher said.

“We will respond wherever, whenever, however we can, to support people in need, including reception centers — food, water, fuel, tents, blankets,” he said.

British Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner called for a “political solution” while the French Foreign Ministry said in a statement it was time in Syria for unity, a peaceful political transition, and for fighting to end.

With reporting by AP, Reuters, AFP, and dpa